2024-2025 Predictions, based on TV Ratings data through March 20
Okay, so after the last predictions post, I noticed something in my code that resulted in a couple of problems. First, it was incorrectly determining the ratings trend from year to year, which is important in predicting the expected renewal thresholds for current season shows when few shows have been renewed or canceled on a network, and secondly I found two more issues in how I calculate and display the projected ratings, as well as a potential problem in the AI architecture. So I solved all of those problems, but that required that I recalculated the prediction models for every network from scratch. For most networks, this means the prediction models don't have quite as high of an accuracy rate as they previously did, as that will likely require weeks more of refining the models, although the NBC model managed to improve its accuracy. That being said, the predictions may end up still being more reliable because of the better trend calculation, and the actual ratings and viewer numbers you see reported on the charts should be a closer approximation to reality as well.
With that said, we're going to have a lot of changes to the predictions this week because all of the models were retrained from scratch, so here we go:
Suits LA drops all the way from a certain renewal to a certain cancellation.
The Hunting Party drops all the way from a certain renewal to just leaning renewed.
Grimsburg and Shifting Gears both drop from certain renewals to just likely renewed.
Grosse Pointe Garden Society drops all the way from a likely renewal to a certain cancellation. This one in particular is likely due to the shift to Fridays being announced. It is rare for a show to move from a non-Friday slot to a Friday slot, and this often means a show is underperforming in the original slot and they want to free that slot up for a better show, which increases the likelihood of cancellation.
Animal Control, Found, Law & Order, Family Guy, and The Irrational all upgrade from likely to certain renewals.
Accused drops from a likely renewal to just leaning renewed.
Going Dutch drops all the way from a likely renewal to a likely cancellation.
All American drops from leaning towards renewal to a likely cancellation.
Rescue: HI-Surf drops all the way from leaning canceled to a certain cancellation.
Wild Cards upgrades all the way from leaning towards cancellation to a certain renewal.
Joan drops from a likely to certain cancellation.
The Great North upgrades from a likely cancellation to just leaning canceled.
Grey's Anatomy upgrades all the way from a likely cancellation to a certain renewal.
Good Cop / Bad Cop and Sullivan's Crossing both upgrade all the way from likely cancellations to likely renewals.
Poppa's House upgrades from a likely cancellation to leaning towards renewal.
